After the revision of the methodology for calculating the recycling fee announced by the authorities, the Russian car market may change significantly. Experts explained to Autonews.ru which models will go away, and which will remain and rise in price

Фото: Belkin Alexey / NEWS.ru / Global Look Press

What will change and when

The Ministry of Industry and Trade announced a revision of the methodology for calculating the recycling fee for cars imported into Russia. In accordance with the release, from November 2025, when calculating the cost of "scrap", they can begin to take into account not only the engine size and the year of manufacture of vehicles, but also the maximum power. The innovation will also affect electric cars and hybrids: benefits are planned to be retained only for cars with a capacity of less than 80 hp.

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As for traditional cars with an internal combustion engine (ICE), if the power exceeds 160 hp, even individuals importing cars for their own needs will be required to pay a recycling fee at commercial rates.

At the moment, the following preferential rate applies to ordinary citizens:

3.4 thousand rubles, if the age of the car does not exceed three years;

5.2 thousand rubles if the age is more than three years.

The commercial recycling fee rate is several times higher. For example, for cars with an engine capacity of 1.0 to 2.0 liters, it is now 667 thousand rubles, and from 2.0 to 3.0 liters - 1,875,400 rubles.

According to the authorities, the increase in recycling rates will allow an additional collection of 40 billion to 60 billion rubles per year to the budget. The funds can be used to co-finance programs to support demand in the car market. By the way, by 2030, according to the plans for the annual indexation of the "scrap", the commercial rate for models with an engine capacity of 1 to 2 liters will increase from today's 667,400 rubles to 1,172,400 rubles.

Which cars will remain, which will not

The revision of the methodology for calculating "scrap", according to the experts interviewed Autonews.ru, can lead to a significant transformation of the Russian car market. In the primary market, the cost of many models will jump instantly, and in two or three months, prices will rise in the secondary market - they will stretch up following the market for new cars.

"We are talking about a partial curtailment of the window of opportunity for individuals to import cars for personal use, in which the recycling fee is several thousand rubles," explained Vyacheslav Zhigalov, President of the Union of Automobile Dealers (SAD).

"Now this channel has turned into a large-scale business with tens of thousands of cars imported mainly from South Korea and China. Such a window contradicts the very idea of the recycling fee as a protective barrier for the domestic automotive industry," he added.

According to the expert, now the loophole is used not by citizens, but by business, while gaining an unjustified competitive advantage.

Photo: Mikhail Grebenshchikov / RBC

Zhigalov found it difficult to predict the fate of individual models due to a large number of factors.

Alexei Tuzov, an independent expert in the transport industry, explained that with the introduction of a new "scrap", the possibility of purchasing new cars imported through parallel imports will change.

"Models previously available will now face a high tax burden. For example, European and American sports cars with powerful engines, premium SUVs (for example, Mercedes-Benz GLS, BMW X7), Japanese and Korean models like Toyota Land Cruiser and Kia Mohave will rise in price. These cars will no longer be in demand among Russians, due to the fact that it will no longer be profitable to import them," Tuzov said.

Andrey Olkhovsky, General Director of the Avtodom Group of Companies, called the consequences of the new methodology negative, since all additional costs will fall on the shoulders of the end client, without creating free competition. The expert estimated the level of the upcoming rise in price of Li Auto models, as well as Aito Seres, popular in Russia, at about 2 million rubles.

The specialist added that on the eve of the launch of the innovation, one should not expect an increase in car imports into the country: it makes no sense to bring more cars than can be sold in two months.

"The main changes in the growth of the recycling fee will affect a small segment of the market - these are hybrids and electric cars, where the increase in the final cost will be about + 2 million rubles per unit. And the entire segment of electric cars and hybrids accounts for about 8% of sales," Olkhovsky emphasized.

Photo: Mikhail Grebenshchikov / RBC

Anatoly Semenov, Director of the Association of Parallel Imports, recalled that preferential rates will remain only for cars with engines with a capacity of less than 160 hp. when importing cars for personal purposes. For electric vehicles and sequential hybrids (e.g. Li Auto, Voyah Free), the threshold is set at 80 hp.

Among the currently imported popular models that will definitely remain, the expert attributed the following:

Mazda CX-5 2.0 (155 hp);

Toyota RAV4 2.0 (150–155 л.с.);

Nissan X-Trail 2.0 (150 л.с.);

Hyundai Tucson 2,0 MPI (150 л.с.);

Kia Sportage 2.0 MPI (150 л.с.);

Volkswagen Tiguan, Tayron, T-Roc 1,4 TSI (150 л.с.);

Audi A3, Q3, Q2L 1,4 TSI (150 л.с.);

Skoda Octavia, Superb, Karoq 1.4 TSI (150 hp);

Honda Civic 2.0 (155 л.с.).

Also in the list of models, according to Semyonov, will remain on the market:

Volkswagen Golf;

Kia K3;

Mazda3;

BMW X1;

Mercedes-Benz C-Class;

Audi A3.

Mazda CX-5 (Photo: DongChedi)

According to him, Japanese right-hand drive cars will not disappear either:

Honda Freed;

Honda Fit;

Toyota Corolla;

Honda Stepwgn;

Honda Fiber;

Suzuki Jimny.

Among the cars with a capacity of more than 160 hp, which are still imported at preferential rates, almost all all-wheel drive vehicles will remain:

Geely Monjaro;

Toyota RAV4;

BMW X3 and X5;

Hyundai Palisade и Santa Fe;

BMW 5 Series;

Toyota Highlander;

Kia Sorento и Carnival.

However, the cost of many new foreign cars will increase by 800 thousand rubles or more, depending on the engine power, the expert believes.

Cars with engines from 1.5 to 2.0 liters, which now cost an average of 2.5-3 million rubles, will rise in price by 15-22%, and with engines with a volume of 2.0-3.0 liters and an average cost of 4-5 million rubles - by 30-40%, Semenov is sure.

"The amendments finally confirm the unconstitutional introduction of new tax and customs fees with the help of the utilization fee, which are not provided for by law, are not proportional to the declared environmental goals of car recycling (which does not depend on the engine power) and are exclusively protectionist in nature, violating fair competition and provoking inflation," the source said.

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